Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,897,380$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,869,901.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,869,901.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109,132$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,793.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106,793.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,296,542$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,947$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,427.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(96,427.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,778$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(615 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,694.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,694.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,095$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $110,026$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,987.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 73.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,987.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,170$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(314 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,675.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 68.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,675.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,015$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,463$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,332.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 62.0)}}\) (asimptote \(17,332.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $370$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(35.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{366.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(366.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,374$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,708$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,425.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 60.8)}}\) (asimptote \(22,425.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $525$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(90.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{510.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(510.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,447$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,971$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(124 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,137.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 73.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,137.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $248$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(18.6 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{352.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 59.6)}}\) (asimptote \(352.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,046$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,485$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(42.9 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,962.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 77.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,962.8\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $216$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(0.82 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,216$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,849$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(76.7 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,039.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 62.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,039.4\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $53$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(113.5\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,547$ on 2020-06-05
